ARPC Cyclone Season Update: 2025–26 Declared Events and Loss Estimates

11 May 2026

ARPC has released an update on insured losses from declared tropical cyclone events from the 2025-26 season, providing an early view of loss development.

For the 2025-26 season, ultimate incurred losses are currently estimated at approximately $267 million[1], reflecting a central estimate of $195 million and a risk margin of $72 million. All numbers provided in this summary are unaudited actuarial reserving estimates.

A total of nine declared cyclone events contributed to losses during the season. While overall activity was elevated, no single event drove material losses at a portfolio level, reflecting the limited impact on major population centres. However, several systems produced complex and geographically dispersed loss patterns, adding to the challenge of event definition and loss development.

ARPC Chief Executive Dr Christopher Wallace said the season highlighted both the performance of the cyclone pool and the evolving complexity of cyclone risk.

“The 2025-26 season was one of the most active in recent years. Despite this, losses remain within expectations and do not change our overall view of the pool’s resilience,” Dr Wallace said.

“Importantly, the pool has continued to operate as intended – providing certainty of cover, supporting insurer balance sheets and reducing reliance on global reinsurance markets.”

Tropical Cyclone Narelle stood out as one of the most complex systems of the season.

“Narelle followed an unusual and extended path, impacting multiple regions over a prolonged period,” Dr Wallace said.

“While two events were declared in line with the legislative framework, these reflected distinct phases of one underlying weather system. We will continue to work closely with insurers to support recovery, taking a practical approach that reflects both the formal framework and how losses emerge in practice.”

2025-26 Declared Cyclone Events – Estimated Losses (as at 31 March 2026)

Cyclone Pool Portfolio Context

Since its establishment, the cyclone pool’s total estimated ultimate losses are around $2 billion, driven largely by prior‑year events, including Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

In this context, losses from the 2025-26 season represent a modest contribution to overall pool experience, reinforcing the pool’s ability to absorb variability across seasons.

Historical Loss Experience by Season (as at 31 March 2026)

As losses continue to be assessed, ARPC will monitor loss development closely, noting that estimates remain subject to change as data matures. No loss data has yet been received for Tropical Cyclone Narelle, and several events remain in early stages of loss development.

All numbers provided in this summary are unaudited actuarial reserving estimates. Loss estimates for the season may therefore continue to evolve further, particularly for events with prolonged damage and recovery timelines.

ARPC will continue to provide updates as losses develop, supporting transparency, and informed decision-making across the insurance sector.

[1] Estimated ultimate incurred losses represent ARPC’s current best estimate of total claims once all claims are reported and finalised. These estimates include expected future development and may differ from loss figures published in ARPC’s quarterly statistics, which reflect claims reported at a point in time.