Why did Australia’s Terrorism Threat Level Change?

29 October 2024

On 5 August, the Australian Government announced that Australia’s national terrorism threat level has been raised from ‘possible’ to ‘probable’. The threat level had been sitting at ‘probable’ since November 2015, before being downgraded to ‘possible’ in 2022. Read ARPC’s update on this status change here, ARPC notes raised official threat level.

What has changed?

During an August press conference in Parliament House, the Director-General of Security at ASIO, Mike Burgess AM outlined that the threat assessment reflects a degrading security environment – both globally and locally.

The threat level being changed to ‘probable’ indicates a greater than 50 per cent chance of an onshore attack or attack being planned in the next 12 months. These are specific parameters defined by The National Terrorism Threat Advisory System, which provides advice about the likelihood of an act of terrorism in Australia. It also informs what safety measures authorities and individuals need to take considering the increased threat.

ASIO outlined that not only has the threat level elevated, but the nature of the threat has also shifted.

Nature of the threats

According to ASIO, the nature of terrorism threats has shifted several ways, making counter-terrorism efforts more challenging, as outlined below.

• Specific to hybrid motivations: A move from specific extremist ideology to ‘hybrid’ ideologies that encompass a mix of grievances.
• Faster radicalisation: Radicalisation that typically occurred due to sustained exposure is now happening faster.
• More fluid (or no) organisational structures: Previously, threat actors typically were directly linked to established organisations, now they are often operating independently as lone-actors or in small loosely organised groups. These means that acts of violence can be almost spontaneous or purely reactive.

Underpinning issues

The contributing factors to the degrading security climate are complex. ASIO says that political polarisation, intolerance and anti-authority beliefs are growing, while trust in institutions is eroding. This is a trend seen globally. These dynamics fuel grievances, contributing to online radicalisation. Extremist ideologies, conspiracies and misinformation that flourish online have made young Australians particularly vulnerable.

As polarisation, frustration and perceived injustices grow, ASIO anticipates an increase in politically motivated violence, including terrorism across all ideological spectrums. It is important to note that political debate, political differences and political protests are an essential part of a healthy democracy – however ASIO notes there are spikes in political violence, with inflammatory behaviours being normalised globally.

Concluding remarks

Mike Burgess emphasised the importance of enhancing community engagement, including initiatives aimed at building trust between law enforcement and local communities. International collaboration is also important as many threats transcend national borders.

Addressing the root causes of radicalisation is critical for long-term prevention.

Author: Amanda Tsioutis, Executive Manager Thought Leadership